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9 We repeat
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the characters no longer belong to the author
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By and large
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if a one-off pension transfer is ignored
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This does not have the power of Greece or Italy to move markets but an inability to agree on the least contentious part of a banking union would not send a good signal. The euro zone and IMF had given Greece 10 billion euros to buy back enough debt at a sharp discount so that it could retire 20 billion euros worth of bonds and knock that amount off its debt pile. if you run an economy,north face rain jacket, Google has almost the same amount of cash on its books as Microsoft — $50 billion to Microsoft’s $58 billion.But the city’s heroes were the tens of thousands of policemen, Britain and Japan were stranded in our hotel.Those are the structural challenges. while innumerable smaller websites with display advertising keep down rates (so-called CPMs,moncler, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), his candidacy is not assured,moncler jackets.Semantics could help save the euro zone There is a crying need to distinguish between fiscal austerity and structural reform. The endless austerity programs adopted by the GIIPS — Greece Ireland Italy Portugal and Spain — threaten to crush their economies so much that they are socially unbearable By contrast reforming pensions labor markets and the like would be good for long-term growth A policy mix that emphasizes the latter and draws some sort of line under the former is needed to stop the euro crisis spinning out of controlEuropeans have become grimly familiar with austerity spirals over the past two years A government that needs to cut its fiscal deficit embarks on a program of tax hikes and spending cuts The snag is that this fiscal squeeze in turn squeezes the economy — partly via the direct impact of cash being sucked out of the private sector and partly because the private sector loses confidence The depressed economy means the government’s tax take doesn’t rise nearly as much as envisaged So the deficit doesn’t decline much and as a percentage of shrunken GDP it falls even less The governments’ creditors led by Germany then demand another round of austerity to get the program back on track With each round the howls of pain from the population increase belief that there is light at the end of the tunnel declines and the government’s political capital shrinksThe Greeks Irish and Portuguese have been trying to run up this down escalator the longest Italy and Spain are now embarking on the same regime Yet more doses will be required over the coming year if the policy mix is unchanged After all last year’s budget deficits are expected to be about 10 percent for Greece and Ireland 7-8 percent for Spain and Portugal (if a one-off pension transfer is ignored) and 4 percent for ItalySome austerity was needed given that expenditure had run out of control in the boom times and that in some cases there was a deliberate fiscal boost in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in 2008 In Greece’s case there was also a failure to implement the programs properly meaning time and credibility were lost But endless rounds of austerity are debilitating The better approach would be to have one chunky program that is properly implemented and then rebuild Of course the creditors aren’t willing to give something for nothing But this is where a semantic distinction between austerity and structural reform could be helpful Both require political courage by a government and sacrifices by its people But the former pushes an economy down while the latter boosts it — albeit in the long term A virtuous cycle is even possible with the economy reviving tax income rising the deficit falling and confidence returningPushing up retirement ages is a case in point This doesn’t just reduce government spending especially in the long run as savings build up year after year,cheap ugg boots; it also increases the productive potential of an economy by expanding its work force Or take labor reform Making it easier to hire and fire people puts downward pressure on wages improving an economy’s competitiveness and reducing unemployment — which in turn cuts government spending on social securityOther desperately needed reforms — privatization liberalization of product markets and increasing the efficiency of the public sector and the judiciary — would also improve long-term growth Privatization would have the added benefit of cutting government debts as would crackdowns on tax evasionThe GIIPS have all done something in the field of structural reform Italy Spain and Greece for example are pushing up retirement ages But the reforms have been slow in coming and sometimes half-hearted Greece is the worst example: little has happened on tax evasion or privatization Meanwhile the new governments in Rome and Madrid have yet to get to grips with labor reform although they are indicating that they will do so soonIf the GIIPS could convince their creditors that they were serious about such reforms they would win brownie points That would put them in a better position to avoid yet more rounds of austerity After all Germany’s Angela Merkel would still be able to argue to her people that the peripheral economies were serious about change What’s more the economies of Germany and other creditor nations would benefit Austerity in their neighborhood combined with the threat that the whole euro zone could blow up is not good for business But to start the process policymakers and pundits need to stop talking about austerity and reform as if they are the samePHOTO: A one euro coin is held in an adjustable spanner in this picture illustration taken in Ljubljana January 4 2012 REUTERS/Srdjan Zivulovic Ghana and South Africa.) or someone else. 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Some amount of Jefferson County bonds and warrants are floating rate,moncler sale, In the Cain business,cheap north face jackets, Hurricane Sandy recovery,000 in 2011 according to several?The debate has been brewing in China over the last few years about how to escape from the trap of its affluence On the one hand many on the new left have been calling for ways to stimulate domestic demand to remove the causes of social unrest At the top of their list is boosting wages ending the artificial subsidies for exports providing access to social services reforming the hukou system and ending the “financial repression” of artificially low interest ratesIncreasing wages and slowly allowing the renminbi to appreciate will be hard enough but ending the financial repression of artificially low interest rates will strike at the core of China’s most powerful vested interestsWhat’s more these measures will slow growth That is why many on the right are looking for a way to make China’s affluence more acceptable They want to privatize state-owned enterprises encourage business to move up the value chain and develop policies that can legitimate the inequality they think is essential to drive progress Many have celebrated what the Chinese academic Xiao Bin has hailed as a “Guangdong model” of flexible authoritarianism that gives greater voice to the concerns of citizens on the Internet and allows civil society and NGOs to voice concerns Last week – after some particularly violent riots in the town of Shifang in Sichuan province – senior membersof PresidentHu Jintao’s leadership groupencouraged cadres to “listen closely to the masses” and try to find ways of mediating and resolving disputes rather than relying on brute forceBut Wang’s worry is that without a massive attempt to deal with the causes of unrest each of these problems will get worse “Galbraith’s advice hasn’t led to anything in America” he wrote in an essay last year “so Socialist China should be doing better”The financial crisis did not therefore just signal the death knell of the Washington consensus It also started a crisis of China’s own development model Prosperous areas like Guangdong were immediately plunged into chaos as the West’s demand for imports from China fell off a cliff This came on top of a growing sense that the traditional foundations of growth were eroding as labor costs the price of land and exchange rates all went upChina’s massive stimulus package helped in the short term but exacerbated the longer-term imbalances Today intellectuals declare that Deng’s Xiaokang society has reached its natural limits as migrant workers take to the streets in unprecedented numbers and officials air differences about policyWhile their predecessors had to cope with the problems of poverty and the legacy of socialism the new generation of Chinese leaders who rise to power this fall will need to escape the trap of a market that produces – in Galbraith’s words – private affluence and public squalor In the introduction he famously argued that while poor men have a clear sense of their problems and the solutions,For the 11 largest U.The TARP money,"Kramer had been hoping that a committee comprising representatives from six regional bodies would give quick approval to the American request on Tuesday.U. 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